Critical Issues in the Domain of Climate Dynamics

For over three decades, the search for a definitve and accurate value of Climate Sensitivity has been the "Grail Quest" of climate science. The assessment of climate risk and the development of a strategic international response to global warming depend fundamentally on answering the question:

"By how much does the natural feedback system of the planet amplify the effects of human emissions of carbon dioxide?"

The current ensemble of climate models has great difficulty dealing with the complexity of the feedback processes involved. Their outputs are known to be too conservative and have a high degree of uncertainty. In constrast this paper presents a definitive value of climate sensitivity with much lower levels of uncertainty. The multi-disciplinary approach is independent of global climate models and is grounded in empirical data concerning the dynamics of the whole earth system. The derived value of climate sensitivity is significantly higher than current estimates which it should now replace. It will require a radical revision of the strategic approach to the mitigation of climate change. It also lays the foundation for a new assessment of the boundary conditions of runaway climate change. (see "Part 2: Beyond the Stable State" - to be released shortly)

As an extended exercise in peer learning and review, this draft text is being made widely available prior to fomal publication. The aim is to stimulate critical evaluation of content, methodology, conclusions and implications. Further details of the exercise, including the e-address to which comments and responses should be sent, can be found in the "Cover Sheet" at the front of the the document.

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