Apollo-Gaia Project

Director: David Wasdell

Sensitivity and the Carbon Budget

The Ultimate Challenge of Climate Science

by David Wasdell

The presentation was introduced on 4th March at the Climate Challenge 2014 Conference, Convened by Climate Change Solutions, and held in the I-Max Theatre of the Millennium Point complex in Birmingham during International Climate Week. The subject of "Sensitivity and the Carbon Budget" raises two of the most fundamental issues that determine our strategy, against which we must judge the effectiveness of our solutions, and in the light of which we can assess the appropriateness of our policy.
The material has subsequently been completely revised and re-written for wider circulation. The illustrations and textual commentary have been updated to take account of the most recent and accurate values of key variables. Basic references are included as active links within the presentation, the visual basis of the analysis has been retained, and the commentary kept in the style of spoken English with minimal technical jargon. Equations have been avoided in the mathematical sections, with the concepts expanded in order to communicate to those without formal mathematical training. This new version, released on 6th June 2014, can be accessed via the pdf link below.

Questions, Comments, Feedback, Peer-Review and Responses

"The scientific case is not dependent on citation of authority, no matter how distinguished the authority may be. The case is dependent upon experimental evidence, logic and reason." (Farley, 2008)
The publication of "Sensitivity and the Carbon Budget" coincided with the 70th anniversary of the D-Day landings in Normandy. The culmination of over 8 years of systems dynamics research and formulation under the aegis of the Apollo-Gaia Project, it is the product of an international and inter-disciplinary "peer-learning network". It has been subject to a continuous process of critical review and revision, the aim being to achieve a level of accuracy to match or exceed that obtained by the process of anonymous peer-review as practised by the leading scientific journals. Our endeavour has been to create an exemplar of scientific publishing at the leading edge of the revolution triggered by the advent of the digital age.
Now the presentation is in the public domain, its critical evolution continues. We are maintaining an open-access archive of peer-review responses, questions, feedback and other comments, interspersed with replies from the author. Contributions should be sent to info@meridian.org.uk. Substantive contributions may be added to the archive and, where necessary, the presentation itself will be modified and kept up to date in real time.
Hyperlinked indices are provided in two formats: The first is an alphabetical list of contributors, with notes on their affiliation, date submitted and summary of issues addressed. The second is a sequential archive in reversed date order. Each entry notes the name and affiliation of the contributor together with a summary of the issues addressed.